India could launch attacks against Pakistani positions in Kashmir in as little as two weeks unless there is firm evidence that Pakistan has curbed cross-border terrorism.
Sources in New Delhi indicate that unless infiltration of Pakistani-backed militants has stopped by mid-June, India might initiate strikes across the Line of Control or ceasefire line that divides Kashmir.
Hawks in the Indian military establishment are sticking to their doctrine of ëlimited military actioní despite warnings from Pakistan that any incursion by the Indian forces across the line "will unleash a storm".
Pakistan this week reserved the right to use nuclear weapons, even in the event of a ëconventional warí, and denied subscribing to a ëno-first-useí policy. Diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis continue, with US President George Bush sending his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to both countries next week. Deputy secretary of State Richard Armitage is expected in the region at the end of this week .
In coming days both India and Pakistan will attend an Asian security conference in Kazakhstan. The leaders of the two countries, however, will not meet face-to-face and there are no expectations that a solution to the Kashmir crisis will emerge from the session.
An Indian military operation would begin with air strikes against a selected number of militantsí training camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Other targets would include Pakistani artillery positions, strategic bridges, logistics bases and military supply routes. Tactical missiles carrying conventional warheads might also be used.
Air strikes would be accompanied by a massive artillery barrage against Pakistani posts along the ceasefire line. Indian infantry would cross the line in large numbers, occupying the strategic heights overlooking known infiltration routes.
Indian ground forces would also attack so-called ëlaunch padsí - known forward bases used by militants for incursions into Indian-administered Kashmir. The decision to launch attacks would be taken by the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, in consultation with his six-man cabinet committee on security.
If Pakistanís president, General Pervez Musharraf, could not halt the incursions, "limited strikes could happen any time in the next two months", said defence consultant Professor Maroof Raza of Middlesex University, London.
"Pakistan would retaliate at a place of its own choosing, not necessarily over the ceasefire line. They could move the focus to the international border."
With the imminent onset of the monsoon rains in the region, however, it would not now be easy for India and Pakistan to fight a large-scale conventional war across the international border.
In the ëlimited actioní scenario, Indian infantry would cross the ceasefire line north of the Pir Panjal range of mountains in the Uri and Kupwara sectors of the Valley of Kashmir, and south of the Pir Panjal in the Poonch and Rajouri sectors.
Ground operations would be restricted by the range of Indian artillery to a depth of 10-15km inside Pakistani territory. India would almost certainly also infiltrate small groups of commandos and special forces behind enemy lines. These would seek to launch surprise raids on Pakistani positions and on the militantsí forward bases.
For a limited operation, India would initially deploy four or five infantry brigades, about 10,000 men - then, if necessary, far larger numbers of men drawn from three army corps based in Kashmir.
Also called into action would be 50 to 70 aircraft from at least half a dozen air squadrons.
The whole operation would probably last no longer than a week or 10 days - the perceived duration of the international communityís tolerance for a military response to continued aggravation by Islamic militants across the ceasefire line.
"India is looking for action, not strategic deception by Pakistan," said security consultant General Ashok Mehta. "If thereís no evidence of the dismantling of militantsí training camps and the end of infiltration, thereís a very real possibility of a military response from India."
Musharraf has recently claimed Pakistan does not export terrorism and that there is no infiltration. Military analysts in New Delhi say there would be little point in India waiting beyond June to verify such statements.
"The Indians are talking weeks, not months," said one Western diplomat in the Indian capital, "and the same goes for Pakistan. If the infiltration does indeed cease and India holds off, then Musharraf will be looking for some positive return from India."
Whether Musharraf chooses or is able to fulfil his pledge to clamp down on Islamic militants operating from Pakistani-held territory remains to be seen. There is growing fear that even if he is well-intentioned, the more extremist militant groupings in his country might by now be beyond his control. US state department spokesman Richard Boucher has warned that "irresponsible elements" could spark a conflict between the two nuclear powers.
Vajpayee has recently urged Indian forces in Kashmir to prepare for "a decisive battle". Another attack by Islamic militants - even the failure of Pakistan to curb incursions into Indian territory, might force him into action. The Old Man, as he is known, would not want to be seen as the hapless prisoner of his own empty rhetoric.
Intelligence sources indicate there are some 35 to 40 militant training camps inside Pakistani-held Kashmir. Despite his protestations to the contrary, it is inconceivable that Musharraf and his military commanders do not know the location of these camps. They are all in areas with a heavy presence of Pakistani forces.
The camps contain around 2,000 Islamic fighters. Of these, a few hundred are at any one time located in ëlaunching padsí, waiting to slip across the ceasefire line into Indian Kashmir.
Some could be al-Qaeda or Taliban fugitives, but the vast majority belong to indigenous Pakistani or pro-Pakistan Kashmiri militant groups
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